YES, rates of young adults dying have been rising. But it's not due to the COVID vaccine - and it's time we talked about it.
When I saw the headline from insurance companies that “death rates have increased in young adults by 40%”, I knew there would be questions.
And that’s ok. It’s OK to want details from the medical community to answer these questions. Because when we don’t answer your Qs, any number of charlatans are HAPPY to jump into that vacuum with their own fear-based agendas (such as those claiming that the excess deaths are due to COVID-19 vaccinations).
As a physician and researcher, understanding this rise – and if the COVID-19 vaccine played any role – was hugely important on a professional level. As a mom and patient who developed a heart condition likely triggered by COVID, it was personal.
I wanted to be sure, too. Which meant it was time for evidence. (I also did a related post on cardiac arrest in the young).
TL;DR Why are more young adults dying
(read ON below for Full Report)
Yes – while young adult deaths had been declining in the 2000s, that reversed in the 2010s. Death rates started to slowly climb – and then jumped in 2020.
No – it’s not the Covid vaccines – here’s why:
- Total deaths in young adults perfectly mirrored COVID peaks – NOT vaccination milestones.
- The biggest mortality jump was in 2020 as COVID began – not in 2021, when the vaccines were introduced (that actually led to a tapering off of the mortality rate).
- Excess deaths in the 0-17 population peaked before the vaccine was even available for the 11 and under crowd.
- Excess deaths highest in the South, where vaccine uptake lowest, and also in demographic groups with the lowest vaccine uptake.
- As a result of the 65+ crowd having high vaccine uptake within a short period, we actually saw a rapid reversal (and temporary elimination) of excess deaths in that group
- New studies have shown that overall mortality (from ALL causes, as well as from NON-COVID causes) is lowest in the vaccinated group.
What’s actually driving it
- Higher rates of suicide, overdoses, accidents, firearm injuries, and drowning
- Delays/disruption in routine medical care due to the pandemic
- COVID itself, of course, which accounted for approx 2/3 of excess deaths. Risks of cardiovascular disease also increase significantly after COVID.
- Growing chronic disease: obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, kidney disease, and heart disease
- Other causes, such as digestive diseases, resulting from alcohol abuse
For more details (and answering more of your Qs), read on below!
Full Report:
Yes, deaths in the young are up.
In the early 2000s, the United States was succeeding in lowering mortality overall, across our country, due to improvements in preventive measures and medical treatments. However, in 2014, that trend started to reverse. Mortality started worsening across the board in 2014 with a steady climb. In fact, way more than other developed countries. Then in 2020, the United States saw a massive jump.
Note: I’ve written separately about cardiac arrest in young people; (subscribe here) to not miss any posts.
WHY IS THIS HAPPENING? HERE’S WHY IT’S NOT THE COVID-19 VACCINE
To get the fullest picture, I looked at the data from a variety of perspectives. Here’s why it’s clear that the COVID-19 vaccine was not the culprit for the rise in deaths.
Vaccination reduces ALL cause death Evidence: The UK Office for national statistics released their data on deaths by vaccination status, for ALL causes of death – and it’s clear that being vaccinated results in a DRASTIC decrease in all causes of death. See the table below (visualization via YLE)
Timing Evidence:
- The biggest jump in mortality was in 2020 (25%), which was prior to the vaccine being available. The death rate in 2021 continued to increase but was at a slower rate than 2020 (21%, vs 25%), and paralleled COVID spikes, not the rise in vaccination rates.
- Excess deaths in the 18-49 year old group perfectly mirrored COVID waves – NOT the vaccine release (graphic from Faust et al. annotations with arrows my own).
- Looking specifically at cardiovascular / circulatory system deaths, this depiction shows that deaths spiked along with each COVID peak, and finally after the vaccination uptake (green line) hit 50-60%.
- Excess mortality for 0-17 was during Delta (which peaked September 2021), but the vaccine wasn’t available to 11 and under until 10/29/2021).
Geographic evidence:
- Excess deaths were highest in the South, where vaccine uptake was the least.
Demographic evidence:
- Excess mortality was greatest in groups with the lowest vaccination rates: Indigenous, Hispanic, and Black populations. In fact, excess mortality was lowest in White people (16% excess mortality), who were the group that had the highest vaccination rates.
Age and Vaccine Uptake Evidence:
- The vaccine rollout period (Winter and Spring 2021) was associated with a huge decrease in the ratio (and even a temporary elimination) of excess mortality in the 65 and up group, due to their unique vaccine uptake rates.
Overall evidence:
- There’s an enormous amount of data demonstrating that the risk of heart damage is higher from COVID than the primary COVID vaccine series (I’ve written about that before, here).
- This study from earlier this month, found that non-COVID mortality rates were actually LOWER in people who had received the COVID-19 vaccine, than those who had not (ie NO increased non-COVID mortality after vaccination).
- Data in young men: While data has shown that the vaccine, especially after a booster dose, does increase the risk of myocarditis in younger men, the risk is about 1/15,000, and cases of vaccine-related myocarditis are mild. In fact, it’s significantly milder than myocarditis induced by COVID; a separate study in people older than 12 found 1 death in 104 patients with post-vaccination myocarditis (1%) and 84 deaths in 762 patients with viral myocarditis (11%). They also noted a 1.9% risk of heart failure in the vaccination group, vs 12.2% in those with COVID. Risks in all other demographic groups from the vaccination are less. Given this data, while the risk is very small, I think it’s entirely fair for young men / parents of young men to weigh the risks and benefits of a booster and make their own decision. However, again, it’s clear that the jump in death rates is NOT due to the vaccine – in any age group.
In an ideal world, we’d know ALL causes of death and which people were vaccinated. But (1) that information would be extremely hard to track down (2) 74% of adults age 18-64 are already vaccinated, and studying this would need to take into account the actual vaccine uptake. Plus, with all of the other data I have seen, it’s just really not necessary.
On an anecdotal level, Dr. Jonathan Drezner (Editor-in-Chief of the British Journal of Sports Medicine, and Co-PI of the Outcomes Registry for Cardiac Conditions in Athletes), said that he had his 15-year-old son vaccinated, as he knew from the data that the risk of complications from COVID was far higher, than from the vaccine.
OK, SO WHAT IS REALLY BEHIND YOUNG ADULTS DYING?
WHY did the US, which was on a great streak of reducing mortality across the board in the early 2000s, suddenly lose ground? I’m GLAD you asked – because we have to start discussing this.
Here are the biggest factors over the past 10 years.
1. External causes (suicide, trauma, firearm injury, overdoses, drowning) – these factors steadily erased all the medical gains that we had made – and drove the slow rise in in the 2010s. Also, starting in 2020, the rate of deaths from external factors rose even faster than the jump in total deaths.
For more detail, see the top 15 causes of death for the 10 to 39-year-old population. Covid-19 is only the #4 cause (behind accidents, suicide, and homicide).
We saw this jump for children, too (with rises due to firearm injuries and drowning)
2. COVID:
- From 2020 to the present: COVID drove a large amount of these all-cause deaths (estimated at 2/3 of excess deaths, in a recent study). The jump was greatest in 2020, with a rise of 25%. Note: the major rise was in 2020; the rise in 2021 was slightly less – 21% — thus maintaining the increase was caused by the pandemic but with slightly slower growth. In addition, COVID increased rates of delayed complications – this study showed that the risk of cardiovascular disease increased by 72% up to 12 months after COVID.
3. CHRONIC DISEASE:
- Overall rising incidence of diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular disease has also been a major driver in the reversal of our mortality improvements of the early 2000s.
4. INDIRECT EFFECTS OF COVID
- Disruptions or delays in care accounted for some portion of the increase.
5. DIGESTIVE DISEASES:
- According to Dr. Steven Woolf, Director Emeritus and Senior Advisor at the Virginia Commonwealth University, these “have been climbing since 2005, led by deaths from cirrhosis of the liver resulting from alcohol use. Alcohol use increased during the pandemic (and patients with chronic liver disease saw reduced care), and thus death rates in this category jumped enormously.
It’s clear that as a country, we need to make changes. That’s why it’s crucial that we stop blaming the wrong causes that lead us on wild goose chases – and start targeting the true causes.
All my best,
- Dr. Darria
Footnote on the data: (1): Mortality charts are from CDC Wonder. 2022 data there is provisional, particularly for late 2022. Hence, for total mortality, I have included 2022 for full transparency, but 2022 data must be weighed with that in mind. For “external causes of death”, as that is a specific cause of death on a death certificate and may still need to be validated and thus make it even less reliable as “provisional”, I excluded that from the graph.
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